I subscribe to a couple of Australian based political debating message boards. I find that often I am one of the more conservative persons on the board. Most other members being young, idealistic Aussies who tend to allow emotion to dictate their arguments.
I find that these people have the mistaken idea that the US has the ability to solve all of the world's problems overnight. They feel that all the problems in the world must be caused by the US deliberately allowing them to occur. Since we have the power to control everything, then it must be our fault.
Those who disagree with the US invasion of Iraq use the same arguments over and over again. They reason that if the US invaded Iraq because it felt threatened, then why have we not used the same excuse to attack North Korea? The answer, in their minds, is because the reason for Iraq is something else. Usually they subscribe to much more sinister reasons, from stealing Iraq’s oil to George Bush wanting to prove his worth to his father.
The flaw in their reasoning is that they are comparing apples to oranges. NK is not Iraq. Iraq is not NK. True, Bush named both as members of the “Axis of Evil”. But that does not mean that the solution to one threat must be identical to another. Nor does it mean that that all must be dealt with in the same time frame.
Using this logic, these same people would be yelling about the hypocrisy of the US attacking the German and Italian armies in North Africa and Europe after the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor in WWII. They would have been jumping up and down asking why we were wasting lives and money in Europe when the Japanese were running around Asia doing whatever they wanted.
I’ve given the matter a lot of thought and frankly I think that we correct in not doing to NK what we did to Iraq. I also can not see a scenario that would require it. Here is why.
Reason #1: The 800 Pound Gorilla.In regards to the threats from North Korea, the 800 pound gorilla is China. North Korea shares a long border with China, longer that the border with South Korea. North Korea is a product of Mao Se Tung’s China. The bottom line is, China has more to loose if NK attacks than almost anyone else. China is North Korea’s best friend and their worst enemy. At the end of the day, the US doesn’t have to deal with NK. China will.
Reason #2: Real threats versus rhetoric.Despite all the rhetoric and saber rattling coming from North Korea, they haven’t attacked any one recently. Saddam did, more than once.
Reason #3: Kim Jong Il is Contained.Despite Kim Il Jong’s absolute grip on power in NK, he has no fans outside of his borders. He doesn’t have the ability to claim to represent all Asians. Saddam, in the other hand, tried to export his cult-of-personality outside of Iraq. He came to see himself as a leader of all Arab people. Many Arabs outside of Iraq looked to Saddam as a hero and a role model. The same can’t be said of Kim Il Jong.
Reason #4: China’s World Role.China today wants to be part of the world. They have in the last 30 years come a long way towards opening up trade, relations, and information to the world. Like a drunken uncle showing up at a family wedding, they don’t want NK to spoil things for them. They don’t get anything from NK but headaches. If push comes to shove, NK is going to find out the hard way how hard China can hit.
Yes, China saved NK in the Korean war. They had their own reasons for doing so. I think that Kim Il Jung is betting that China's "special" friendship will save his ass. I think he is betting wrong.
Reason #5: Oil.Yep. Even oil is a factor. NK is not a threat to any critical resources. Saddam was a threat to the Middle East oil supply. More importantly, the oil funded Saddam. The only thing that NK has been able to do to get money is sell missiles to Iran and get into the drug smuggling business. The bottom line is, NK doesn’t have anything the world needs or wants. NK is finding it much more difficult to sustain itself and has a greater chance of collapsing under its own weigh. Saddam was able to export oil to fund his dictatorship.
Reason #6: The Reality of War.If NK did manage to ignite a war, then China will end up with a mess on their hands that they frankly don’t want. If NK attacks SK, Japan, or the US, then China will find itself with an ugly war in their own back yard. I don’t think China will allow things to get to that point. I think that NK’s days are numbered. If Kim Il Jong gets to the point where China truly feels that war is imminent, then they will have no choice but to invade. And frankly, it won’ be pretty. North Korea will simply cease to exist.
I think China is simply waiting for NK to either collapse, or evolve into something more benign. But if they feel they have to act, then I think they will. And it would not surprise me at all if they tell the US about what they doing, and why, and perhaps even ask for help.
Think about it. China doesn’t need a nuclear war in their backyard. They also don’t want US troops stationed on their border. Nor do they want millions of starving Koreans invading them. So if they run low on choices, then they will do what they have to do, which is to take out NK.
